地震震源与灾害评估分析:中国四川2008年5月12日Ms 8.0汶川地震     

陈胜早 《高校地质学报》2008,14(3)

汶川5月12日8.0级地震在构造上起因于印度板块与欧亚板块以每年约5 cm的速度聚敛,并因此而引起青藏高原的地壳物质向四川盆地及中国东南大陆运移.主震震源及余震活动集中于以龙门山为中轴的一条长约350 km、宽约100 km的地震活动带.震源深度一般分布丁地壳脆性-韧性转换边界以上约10～20 km区间的地壳震源层之中,属浅源构造地震.主要震源机制与龙门山构造运动方式密切相关,以其地壳厚度向西急剧加厚、重力梯度带、高波速比(Vp/Vs～2.2)等深部异常及逆冲断层兼具走滑性质的地质构造为特征.在震源辐射、路径传播和场地效应研究的基础上,分别计算并比较了岩石和土壤条件下的地震响应谱,特别强调了土壤条件下的场地放大效应;同时对与地震安全性有关的一些问题如地质灾害、地震频谱设计、地震早期预警系统及中、长期至短期地震预报等进行了探讨;特别提供了一个由加权平均计算、以岩石条件下震波衰减模式为基础的地震频谱设计参考实例.地震构造与动力学研究可融人工程地质与环境工程等学科发展.经历汶川地震考验的一些新近设计和建设的工程项目可为今后改进工程建筑规范与标准提供重要而有益的参考.地震预报是当今一大难题,但需探索研究,不可懈怠.地震减灾与预防足目前比较切合实际的安全举措.  相似文献   

Uncertainty as the overlap of alternate conditional distributions     

Olena Babak  Clayton V. Deutsch 《Computational Geosciences》2008,12(4):503-512

An important task in modern geostatistics is the assessment and quantification of resource and reserve uncertainty. This uncertainty is valuable support information for many management decisions. Uncertainty at specific locations and uncertainty in the global resource is of interest. There are many different methods to build models of uncertainty, including Kriging, Cokriging, and Inverse Distance. Each method leads to different results. A method is proposed to combine local uncertainties predicted by different models to obtain a combined measure of uncertainty that combines good features of each alternative. The new estimator is the overlap of alternate conditional distributions.  相似文献   

Hierarchical decomposition of variance with applications in environmental mapping based on satellite images     

Ferenc Csillag  Sándor Kabos 《Mathematical Geology》1996,28(4):385-405

A quadtree-based image segmentation procedure (HQ) is presented to map complex environmental conditions. It applies a hierarchical nested analysis of variance within the framework of multiresolution wavelet approximation. The procedure leads to an optimal solution for determining mapping units based on spatial variability with constraints on the arrangement and shape of the units. Linkages to geostatisiics are pointed out, but the HQ decomposition algorithm does not require any homogeneity criteria. The computer implementation can be parameterized by either the number of required mapping units or the maximum within-unit variance, or it can provide a spectrum of significances of nested ANOVA. The detailed mathematical background and methodology is illustrated by a salt-affected grassland mapping study (Hortobágy, Hungary), where heterogeneous environmental characteristics have been sampled and predicted based on remotely sensed images using these principles.  相似文献   

Generalized ‘dependencies’ and parameter variance     

Heinrich Eichhorn 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,64(3):273-275

The autodependence, (a special case of the — now quite obsolete — dependences, which had been introduced for very specialized astrometric purposes) is proportional to the parameter variance which is the expectation of the variance of the systematic error of a function evaluated with estimated parameters.  相似文献   

Analysis of COMPTEL gamma-ray burst locations and spectra     

R. M. Kippen  J. Ryan  A. Connors  M. McConnell  C. Winkler  L. O. Hanlon  V. Schönfelder  J. Greiner  M. Varendorff  W. Collmar  W. Hermsen  L. Kuiper 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,231(1-2):231-234

In its first three years of operation, the COMPTEL instrument on theCompton Gamma-Ray Observatory has measured the locations (mean accuracy 1°) and spectra (0.75-30 MeV) of 18 gamma-ray bursts and continues to observe new events at a rate of 1/month. With good angular resolution and sensitivity at MeV energies, the growing COMPTEL burst catalog is an important new piece of evidence in the on-going GRB mystery. The COMPTEL burst locations are consistent with an isotropic distribution of sources, yet the spatial coincidence of two of the bursts indicates the possibility of repetition. The COMPTEL burst spectra are in most cases consistent with a single power law model with spectral index in the range 2–3. However, two bursts show evidence of a spectral break in the MeV range. Measurement of rapid variability at MeV energies in the stronger bursts provides evidence that either the sources are nearby (within the Galaxy) or the gamma-ray emission is relativistically beamed. We present an overview of analysis results obtained from the COMPTEL burst catalog concentrating on the search for burst repetition and the implications of highly variable MeV emission.  相似文献   

Periodicities in natural remanent magnetization and palaeoclimatic records detected by walsh spectra     

J. G. Negi  R. K. Tiwari 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,132(4):757-769

The time series consisting of nonsinusoidal Natural Remanent Magnetization (NRM) and palaeoclimatic variations for the past two million years have been spectrally examined by using a new Walsh transform technique. The results show statistically significant periodicities (at 95% confidence level) of approximately 92,000 years; 43,000 years and 21,000 years in the ensemble spectra of the NRM intensity (mineralogic) variations. These NRM periodicities are remarkably close to the well-known Milankovitch cycles. The ensemble spectra of palaeoclimatic records reveal only 41,000 years statistically significant (95%) periodicity corresponding to the obliquity cycle. The study suggests that NRM variations in deep sea sediments probably are more sensitive recorders of palaeoclimatic memory than the oxygen isotope variations.  相似文献   

方差体技术在地震勘探中的应用   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

陈凤云 《中国煤田地质》2005,17(2):51-52

三维地震数据体反映了地下一个规则网格的反射情况。当遇到地下有断层或某个局部区域地层不连续变化时，一些地震道的反射特征就会与附近地震道出现差异而导致地震首局部的不连续性。三维方差体技术就是求取三维数据体所有样点的方差值来反映这种不连续性信息。通过该技术在济宁2号井某采区的实际应用，可看出，方差体技术在三维地震信息的自动拾取以及提高地震资料解释成果精度等方面有明显优势，对断层、陷落柱有良好的自动识别能力。  相似文献   

GIS叠置图层方差分量的极大似然估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王新洲  游扬声  刘星  史文中 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2005,30(10):892-896

针对GIS叠置中的同名点,以维希特分布密度为似然函数,提出了各图层方差分量的极大似然估计方法。该方法不依赖残差,不需要迭代就能估计未知参数和方差分量。  相似文献   

Predicting grain protein content of winter wheat using remote sensing data based on nitrogen status and water stress     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2005,7(1):1-9

Advanced site-specific knowledge of grain protein content of winter wheat from remote sensing data would provide opportunities to manage grain harvest differently, and to maximize output by adjusting input in fields. In this study, remote sensing data were utilized to predict grain protein content. Firstly, the leaf nitrogen content at winter wheat anthesis stage was proved to be significantly correlated with grain protein content (R² = 0.36), and spectral indices significantly correlated to leaf nitrogen content at anthesis stage were potential indicators for grain protein content. The vegetation index, VI_green, derived from the canopy spectral reflectance at green and red bands, was significantly correlated to the leaf nitrogen content at anthesis stage, and also highly significantly correlated to the final grain protein content (R² = 0.46). Secondly, the external conditions, such as irrigation, fertilization and temperature, had important influence on grain quality. Water stress at grain filling stage can increase grain protein content, and leaf water content is closely related to irrigation levels, therefore, the spectral indices correlated to leaf water content can be potential indicators for grain protein content. The spectral reflectance of TM channel 5 derived from canopy spectra or image data at grain filling stage was all significantly correlated to grain protein content (R² = 0.31 and 0.37, respectively). Finally, not only this study proved the feasibility of using remote sensing data to predict grain protein content, but it also provided a tentative prediction of the grain protein content in Beijing area using the reflectance image of TM channel 5.  相似文献   

Probabilistic analysis of peak response of MDOF systems with uncertain PSD function     

H. P. Hong  S. S. Wang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2002,31(9):1719-1733

The use of uniform hazard spectra which have the same probability of exceedance at different frequencies has been proposed for the future version of the National Building Code of Canada. Commonly used combination rules to estimate the peak responses of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems are the square root of sum of squares rule and the complete quadratic combination rule. However, the probability that the peak response of a MDOF system exceeds the one estimated by using these rules with the peak modal responses from the uniform hazard spectra cannot be inferred directly. The assessment of the probability of exceedance of the peak response of MDOF systems is presented by considering that the uncertainty in seismic excitation due to all potential earthquakes can be lumped in the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration with uncertain model parameters. This probability is evaluated based on the random vibration of linear systems and the first‐order reliability method. It is found that the under‐ or over‐estimations are less than about 5 or 10% if the modal contributions are not within 10–90% of, or not within 20–80% of, the absolute sum of the effective modal peak responses, respectively. Otherwise, severe under‐ or over‐estimation could result. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献